The Federation of Automobile Dealers Associations (FADA)
Disclaimer: May’20 and May’21 witnessed nationwide lockdown during phase 1 and 2 of Covid. Hence, YoY comparison with these 2 years will not give a true representation for the state of Auto Retail.
- On YoY basis, total vehicle retail for the month of May’22 increased by 207%. All categories were in green. 2W, 3W, PV, Tractors and CV were up by 198%, 696%, 204%, 216% and 278% respectively.
- Auto Retail has still not recovered from the jitters of Covid. When compared with May’19, total vehicle retail was down by -10%. Except PV and Tractor which continues to show growth of 11% and 33%, all the other categories like 2W, 3W and CV fell by -14%, -19% and -11% respectively.
- Government’s reduction in fuel prices will tame inflation and boost vehicle sales, especially 2W but the increase in 3rd party insurance premiums will act as a deterrer for the 2W customers to come forward and conclude their purchase decision.
- While the Russia – Ukraine war continues to fuel chip shortage, RBI has warned of more inflation as the increase in wholesale prices will get passed to the consumer thus decreasing his/her disposable income.
6th June’22, Mumbai: The Federation of Automobile Dealers Associations (FADA) today released Vehicle Retail Data for May’22.
FADA is happy to inform that with its persistent follow up with the Andhra Pradesh Transport Ministry, the state has now migrated vehicle registration to Vahan. While this has happened towards the end of May, full month numbers will only come later. The only states remaining are Telangana, Madhya Pradesh and Lakshadweep. With this Vahan now covers 91.6% RTOs across the country.
May’22 Retails
Commenting on how May’22 performed, FADA President, Mr. Vinkesh Gulati said, “Indian Auto Industry during May’22 continued its flattish run for the 3rd consecutive month. While YoY comparison with May’21 shows exceptionally healthy growth rate across all categories, it is important to note that both May’21 and May’20 were affected by nation-wide lockdown due to covid thus witnessing. Hence a better comparison will be with May’19 which was a normal pre-covid month.
Similar to last month, May’22 when compared to May’19 reveals that Auto Retail is still not on growth trajectory as overall retails were down by -10%. While PV and Tractors continued its positive run by growing 11% and 33%, 2W, 3W and CV are yet to show any signs of healthy run-rate (compared to pre-covid months) as they de-grew by -14%, -19% and 11% respectively.
The Government made a bold decision to cut excise duty on fuel prices thus reducing inflation and economic distress. While this will have a positive rub-off on sale of vehicles especially 2W, the increase in 3rd party insurance premium will act as a deterrer for some.
The 2W segment has seen slight improvement in overall sales when compared with April’22. While 2W EV sales were growing rapidly though on low base, various fire incidents across almost all EV brands has created a fear in the mind of the customer. This coupled with supply chain issues, has decreased 2W EV sales drastically from last month.
The PV segment which has already surpassed May’19 numbers is witnessing huge demand. Dealers are not be able to fulfil the same due to supply side issues. This has not only led to an increase in waiting period (ranging from 3 months to 2 years) but is also keeping the customers frustrated. Healthy booking and single digit cancellation shows that demand may stay put even when normal supply resumes in months to come.
The CV segment especially buses are showing good demand due to re-opening of educational institutions.”
Near Term Outlook
While the Russia – Ukraine war continues to create demand supply mis-match thus delaying the availability of PVs, RBI has warned of more inflation as the increase in wholesale prices will get passed on to the end consumers. This will result in a lower disposable income which will ultimately hamper Auto Sales.
RBI’s observation has come at a time when WPI Index rose by record 15.1% in the wake of high commodity prices and the impact of the breakdown in supply chains due to the War and the strict lockdown by China.
FADA hence continues to remain cautious for any further recovery in Auto Sales in the near term.
Key Findings from our Online Members Survey
- Inventory at the end of May’22
- Average inventory for Passenger Vehicles ranges from 15 – 20 days
- Average inventory for Two – Wheelers ranges from 23 – 25 days
- Liquidity
- Good 43.7%
- Neutral 43.7%
- Bad 12.6%
- Sentiment
- Good 44.2%
- Neutral 42.2%
- Bad 13.6%
Chart showing Vehicle Retail Data
All India Vehicle Retail Data for May’22
CATEGORY | MAY'22 | MAY'21 | YoY % | MAY'20 | % Change w.r.t MAY'20 | MAY'19 | % Change w.r.t MAY'19 |
2W | 12,22,994 | 4,10,871 | 197.66% | 1,61,276 | 658.32% | 14,20,563 | -13.91% |
3W | 41,508 | 5,215 | 695.93% | 1,895 | 2090.40% | 51,446 | -19.32% |
PV | 2,63,152 | 86,479 | 204.30% | 31,951 | 723.61% | 2,36,215 | 11.40% |
TRAC | 52,487 | 16,623 | 215.75% | 10,193 | 414.93% | 39,438 | 33.09% |
CV | 66,632 | 17,607 | 278.44% | 1,049 | 6251.95% | 75,238 | -11.44% |
LCV | 38,635 | 9,463 | 308.27% | 694 | 5467.00% | 43,267 | -10.71% |
MCV | 3,941 | 918 | 329.30% | 2 | 196950.00% | 5,077 | -22.38% |
HCV | 20,945 | 6,252 | 235.01% | 22 | 95104.55% | 23,931 | -12.48% |
Others | 3,111 | 974 | 219.40% | 331 | 839.88% | 2,963 | 4.99% |
Total | 16,46,773 | 5,36,795 | 206.78% | 2,06,364 | 697.99% | 18,22,900 | -9.66% |
Source: FADA Research
Disclaimer:
- The above numbers do not have figures from AP, MP, LD & TS as they are not yet on Vahan 4. However, for May’ 2022 Numbers Andhra Pradesh Data has been covered.
- Vehicle Retail Data has been collated as on 04.06.22 in collaboration with Ministry of Road Transport & Highways, Government of India and has been gathered from 1,481 out of 1,616 RTOs.
- CV is subdivided in the following manner
- LCV – Light Commercial Vehicle (incl. Passenger & Goods Vehicle)
- MCV – Medium Commercial Vehicle (incl. Passenger & Goods Vehicle)
- HCV – Heavy Commercial Vehicle (incl. Passenger & Goods Vehicle)
- Others – Construction Equipment Vehicles and others
May’22 Category-wise market share can be found in Annexure 1, Page No. 04
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