कोल्हापूर फिल्म कंपनी 'विठ्ठल दर्शन' अभिनेते जितेंद्र जोशी सादरीकरण करणार

Tata Motors Ltd
JLR supply issues to persist in near-term, but expect gradual easing in H2
BUY
CMP: Rs293  |  Target Price: Rs400	Click here to download full report
■    JLR's Q1 EBITDA of GBP449mn (-55% qoq) came in 5% below our estimates. Margin contracted 630bps qoq to 9%, mainly due to delayed semiconductor supplies, resulting in negative operating leverage and emission penalties. ■    JLR's order book is strong at 110,000 units, but wholesales are unable to meet demand. Q1 wholesales (ex CJLR) were low at ~84,000 units, and Q2 guidance is lower at ~65,000 units. Management hopes for an improvement to ~90,000 units in Q3 and a further increase in Q4, led by a pick-up in semiconductor supplies. ■    We reduce consolidated EBITDA for FY22E/23E/24E by 16%/4%/2%, mainly due to lower volume and margin assumptions at JLR. Despite the cut in EBITDA, we expect robust revenue/EBITDA CAGRs of 17%/22% over FY21-24E, led by anticipated sales cycle upturns in standalone and JLR divisions. ■    Near-term stock catalysts include better standalone volumes, probable tie-up of JLR with larger OEMs for licensing of EV platform and possibility of partial divestments of India PV division. In addition, JLR's sales upcycle is expected from H2 onward. Retain Buy with SOTP-based TP of Rs400 at 2x/11x EV/EBITDA on Sep'23E (Mar'23E earlier). Please see our sector model portfolio (Emkay Alpha Portfolio): Automobiles & Auto Ancillaries

Recommendation History	Recent Research Reports
Tata Motors Ltd: Strong quarter; Focus remains on margins and cash-flows; Retain Buy	Auto & Auto Ancillaries|Q1FY22 Preview: Temporary weakness expected due to lockdowns
Tata Motors Ltd: JLR: Margin expansion and deleveraging remain focus areas	Automobiles|Jun’21 volumes beat estimates; expect further improvement in Q2FY22
Tata Motors Ltd: India biz: cyclical upturn, new products and cost savings to drive earnings performance	Automobiles|Jun’21 preview: Volumes to improve sequentially
Tata Motors Ltd: TaMo 2.0: Lock, Stock and Barrel	Auto & Auto Ancillaries|PVs: Expect swift recovery in volumes; MSIL to sustain share in near term
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	Automobiles|May’21 review: Lackluster performance due to lockdowns but swift recovery expected ahead
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	Electric Vehicle Conference|Decoding Electric Vehicle Disruption
	Automobiles|Apr’21 review: Auto sales hit Covid-19 roadblock again
	Automobiles|Apr’21 preview: Lockdown dampener to Auto sales

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